I have to admit, yesterday changed my read on the bottom half of the standings more than I expected. Phoenix1 brought Ryu back into the starting lineup, but the move did not work out at all. They lost two straight games to Echo Fox and looked disconnected. Team Liquid also lost, but the return of Dardoch gave them a completely different feel. Against Immortals, Liquid had a genuine shot to take game one until a Baron misplay after a won fight flipped the game. They still came up short, but they climbed out of last place. With three matches remaining, the main goal for Liquid is simple: escape relegation. I’m treating today as a huge test of whether that is realistic.

Here are the standings heading into day two.

Place Team
1 Immortals
2 Counter Logic Gaming, Team SoloMid
4 Team Dignitas, Team EnVy, Cloud9
7 Echo Fox
8 Team Liquid, FlyQuest
10 Phoenix1

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Heading into today, the schedule is:

  • FlyQuest vs Team SoloMid

  • Team EnVy vs Counter Logic Gaming

  • Team Dignitas vs Immortals

  • Team Liquid vs Cloud9

I think we all assume TSM should not have any issues with FlyQuest, but they definitely could. Lately, TSM has shown a tendency to not play their highest level, and they pay for it when that happens. It usually only takes one loss for them to get themselves back in gear. FlyQuest are exactly the kind of team that can punish a slow TSM start. I’m expecting TSM to win the series, but I think they drop one game. FlyQuest 1-2 Team SoloMid.

I’m going for the upset in the second match. CLG will start OmarGod in the jungle today, but that is not the main reason I’m doubting them. Before the split, I thought CLG might pull it off, but today I’m going with my gut. I’m a big fan of LirA, and I think this is a huge opportunity for Team EnVy to take down the number two team. It likely will not happen, but I am rooting for it. Team EnVy 2-1 CLG.

The next match is the one where I feel most confident picking an upset. Dignitas have been playing really well since their time off around Rift Rivals. Since then, their other lanes have improved a lot, and the bot lane has been carrying hard. In their recent upsets, Altec got his hands on Kalista and destroyed teams. He is sporting a 4-1 record and a 7 KDA ratio on her. If Kalista is taken away, his fallback has been Tristana, and he has been equally impressive on that pick. DIG are a strong team, and after Immortals’ lackluster showing last night, I’m betting on Dignitas. Team Dignitas 2-1 Immortals.

Cloud9 should win today, but Team Liquid looked much better yesterday. As I said earlier, if not for that Baron fail, Liquid could have taken a game off the number one team, and then who knows how the series plays out? There is also the looming factor of Mickey. I do not think he is going to come in and solve all of their problems right away, and he could not even be in America yet, so he is likely a non-factor for now. Even without him, Goldenglue has been doing his part in helping Piglet. He is not feeding and has been playing immensely better than last split. I hope he keeps it up and can stay on that roster. Regardless, I think Cloud9 drop one game but take home the win. Team Liquid 1-2 Cloud9.

The relegation picture is still messy. Liquid and FlyQuest are tied at eighth, but Liquid’s form feels better than the standings suggest. Phoenix1 are now last, and bringing Ryu back did not give them the immediate spark they needed. If Phoenix1 continue to struggle, the bottom of the table could become a race between them and the teams just above. That makes every map from here on out matter.

For me, the key question today is not just who wins, but how the winners win. If TSM sleepwalk through game one and still bounce back, that is normal TSM behavior. If Immortals drop the series to Dignitas, the race at the top becomes much tighter than the standings currently show. And if Liquid can take a game from Cloud9, their escape plan suddenly looks more realistic. I’ll be watching the Baron calls, the bot lane matchups, and whether the upset picks actually land.

At the end of day two, I would not be surprised if the standings feel much different than they do right now. The top three are not untouchable, and the middle of the pack has real momentum. That is exactly why this split remains so fun to follow.